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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Igor Grossmann, Amanda A. Rotella, Cendri Hutcherson, Konstantyn Sharpinskyi, Michael E. W. Varnum, Sebastian K. Achter, Mandeep Dhami, Xinqi Evie Guo, Mane R. Kara-Yakoubian, David Mandel, …
Nature human behaviour, Vol.7(4), pp.484-501
04/01/2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
PMID: 36759585

Abstract

Life Sciences & Biomedicine Multidisciplinary Sciences Neurosciences Neurosciences & Neurology Psychology, Biological Psychology, Experimental Science & Technology Science & Technology - Other Topics Psychology Social Sciences
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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