State-space models have been promoted as the next-generation of fisheries stock assessment and evaluation of their reliability is needed. We simulated operating models that varied fishing pressure, magnitude of observation error, and sources of process error. For each operating model, we fit a range of estimating models with correct and incorrect configurations. We measured reliability of estimating models by convergence rate, accuracy of AIC-based model selection, estimation bias, and magnitude of retrospective patterns. All reliability measures were generally better with lower observation error, contrast in fishing pressure over time, and when median natural mortality rate is known. The magnitude of the log-likelihood gradients was not a reliable indicator of convergence. AIC can generally distinguish process error source with lower observation error and higher true process error variability. Distinguishing the stock recruit relationship with AIC required large contrast in spawning biomass and low recruitment variation, but bias in stock-recruit parameter estimation was prevalent. Retrospective patterns were not large for mis-specified models. These findings improve our understanding of when results from state space models will be reliable.
- An investigation of factors affecting inferences from and reliability of state-space age-structured assessment models
- Timothy J. Miller - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northeast Fisheries Science CenterGregory Britten - Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionElizabeth N Brooks - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northeast Fisheries Science CenterGavin Fay - University of Massachusetts DartmouthAlexander C Hansell - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northeast Fisheries Science CenterChristopher M. Legault - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northeast Fisheries Science CenterChengxue Li - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northeast Fisheries Science CenterBrandon Muffley - Mid Atlantic Fishery Management CouncilBrian Stock - Norwegian Institute of Marine ResearchJohn Wiedenmann - Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
- Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences, Vol.83
- CANADIAN SCIENCE PUBLISHING; OTTAWA
- 20
- NOAA Fisheries Northeast Fisheries Science Center
This work was funded by NOAA Fisheries Northeast Fisheries Science Center. We thank Jon Deroba, two anonymous re-viewers, and the associate editor for helpful comments on earlier versions of this manuscript that markedly improved its clarity.
- Department of Fisheries Oceanography
- English
- Journal article
- https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2025-0149
- 9914532070201301